Back in 2000, just before George W. Bush became president, the CIA published a 70-page report on what the world would be like in 2015.
2015 is winding down fast, and it turns out that several of these predictions were on the money. Others were completely wrong.
Here’s a rundown of some of the predictions, according to a December 2000 story from The Telegraph.
“International affairs are increasingly determined by large and powerful organizations rather than governments.”
ISIS militants seen in a recruitment video.
Verdict: True
One example of this phenomenon has been the rise of the Islamic State.
And there is also a prominent category of groups that blur the line between private actors and the state, such as the pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine, the Chinese hackers suspected of stealing information about millions of US government employees, and the possibly-not-North Korean hackers who took down Sony last year.
“Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties.”
Verdict: True
Sadly, this prediction became true quickly, on September 11, 2001. And ISIS’ proficiency with technology (like encryption) represents a new layer of coordination.
“Iraq and Iran [will] develop long range missiles in the near future. Iran … could be testing such weapons by as early as the coming year, and cruise missiles by 2004.”
!["Iraq and Iran [will] develop long range missiles in the near future. Iran … could be testing such weapons by as early as the coming year, and cruise missiles by 2004."](http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/563d2a319dd7cc24008c7ff4-1200/iraq-and-iran-will-develop-long-range-missiles-in-the-near-future-iran--could-be-testing-such-weapons-by-as-early-as-the-coming-year-and-cruise-missiles-by-2004.jpg)
Raheb Homavandi/Reuters
A military truck carrying a missile and a picture of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is seen during a parade marking the anniversary of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), in Tehran, September 22, 2015.
Verdict: Both true and false
The US led a landmark nuclear deal with Iran in July called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The deal is supposed to be a check on Iran’s ability to amass the components needed for a nuclear weapon over the next 15 years.
But Iran “tested a liquid-fueled missile … capable of carrying a nuclear warhead” last month,according to Reuters, and another nuclear-capable Emad-class missile in October.
“The world population will grow by more than one billion, to 7.2 billion.”
Verdict: True
The world population is now almost 7.4 billion.
“Energy resources will be sufficient to meet demand.”
Verdict: True
US oil production has soared in the last few years, and though the price of US natural gas has recently been low, production has continued to rise.
“China’s economy will grow to overtake Europe as the world’s second largest but still behind the United States.”
Verdict: True-ish
By some measurements, China’s economy is now larger than the US economy. But by other measures, the European economy as a whole is bigger than both.
“Europe will not achieve fully the dreams of parity with the US as a shaper of the global economic system.”
Verdict: Not quite true
The CIA report was very bullish on the European economy, which has generally been sluggish in 2015.
“Aids, famine, and continuing economic and political turmoil means that populations in many [African] countries will actually fall.”
!["Aids, famine, and continuing economic and political turmoil means that populations in many [African] countries will actually fall."](http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/546e516f6bb3f7b00ddac8f6-1200/aids-famine-and-continuing-economic-and-political-turmoil-means-that-populations-in-many-african-countries-will-actually-fall.jpg)
Verdict: False
Africa’s population rose from 800 million in 2000 to 1.1 billion in 2014. And a UN report predicts that “more than half of global population growth between now and 2050 is expected to occur in Africa.”
